January 10th. That’s all that’s left until the morning where the Academy of Motion Pictures and Sciences reveals the flush of nominees to grace the red carpets for the 85th Annual Academy Awards. So, with one last final tally, find out where I suspect who will rank in each category. One final time.
Again, with the possibility of the list ending from anywhere between five and ten nominations, it’s hard to determine where the percentages of votes particularly went, but my guess is that the noms will fence in at nine, like last year. If there were any year to somehow manage to fill up all ten spots, though, it could be this year. The horse race still continues between Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, and Lincoln, but Silver Linings Playbook should gain a little more momentum over Les Mis, due to the musical’s largely loving audience, yet torn critics which could really hurt its chances. Life of Pi seems to have lost some of its buzz since its not likely for it to garner any acting noms, so Beasts could get the edge depending on how much praise newcomer, Wallis, receives. Although it is still very possible for The Master top The Impossible, or even Moonrise Kingdom, the tsunami dramas recent release and moving tale could take its spot.
The top three are still easily locked in. The last two slots could go to O. Russell, thanks to his great work which would then round in a comedy, Lee, due to the Pi “curse,” or even Hooper, the most recent winner of the bunch for Les Mis. Still, even though the gutsy move to make the actors’ sing live could be a reason in itself to give him the nom over either of the other two, the many critics that found it underwhelming and that could reflect the opinions of the Academy too.
Don’t get me wrong based on my last two excerpts, Les Mis still managed to receive a lot of love from viewers, which is why Jackman’s portrayal shot him up a lot higher than before. I expect the rest to remain the same, unless Denzel Washington manages to take over Phoenix.
1. Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
2. Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
3. Naomi Watts – The Impossible
4. Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
5. Quvenzhané Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Once more, these last two spots are a complete toss-up. Before, I assumed that the Academy would finish up like the Golden Globes and SAGS with Mirren and Cotillard. However, both respective films, especially Cotillard’s Rust and Bone, got a slew of poor reviews, which is why veteran, Riva, should make up for the lack of amour for Amour (sorry, had to do it). Wallis, miles more junior to Riva’s age, could manage to get a nomination thanks to the love the film has, yet seemed to have to be ignored for so many other awards due to qualifications. It is possible for Mirren or Cotillard to take either spot, or perhaps even Maggie Smith for her role in Quartet, who could ride her Downton Abbey success to garner her seventh nom.
This category is continuing to keep up its streak of…well. Just not knowing what to do. Nominations have ranged from all of the top three, to De Niro, DiCaprio, Waltz, McGregor. So many different possibilities and still not a clear winner. Expect De Niro, an acting favorite, to still make it, but either DiCaprio or Waltz to take the fifth.
Top three. Locked. Adams? Well. How could she not? Then comes the last. Does it go to Nicole Kidman? Jacki Weaver? Maybe even Maggie Smith again (don’t ever underestimate Lady Crawley)? Possibly. Throughout all of my guesses in all these major categories though, there hasn’t really been one true wild card that was never gotten on many radars. The most likely candidate? Ann Dowd, for her role as a fast food manager following orders over the phone to question a staff over theft in the movie Compliance, based on an actual court case drama. Getting only a Critics’ Choice and Spirit nomination, Down hasn’t really been on many people’s list, except maybe Entertainment Weekly and their continuing push for her. Almost every year though, there manages to be at least one complete, what some may call, “upset.” For others, it could be a celebration and if anyone has the ability to do that this season, it could be Dowd.
Only a few days left! Make sure to check out the final list here on Thursday, along with some possible surprises and snubs! And for more coverage over this set of names, be sure to check out my Take 1 on it all which has a more in depth analysis of some of the nominations!
One final thing. Even though voting closed today, I can only hope that The Perks of Being a Wallflower will not walk away empty handed this year. Anybody else agree or disagree?